UK Weather Forecast for the Week Ahead
|
|
16th August, 2008 Seasonal Forecast (August 16th, 2008 : March 31st, 2009) |RSS|A strong dipole pattern has emerged over the North Atlantic due to a semi-permanent sinking Rossby Wave omega pattern. This will give rise to enhanced cyclonic activity over the United Kingdom, with an intense Polar Jet which is expected to remain intense. The general preference is towards polar maritime or returning polar maritime flow throughout this Autumn and Winter, with a rapid Autumnal cool-off, followed by heavy snowfall for much of Scotland and NW counties this Winter. The general synopsis for this Winter in summary: Temperatures generally below the 1960-1990 average (possibly well-below the 1960-1990 average in Scotland) for much of the Autumn and Winter. Precipitation around average, with heavy Wintry showers during the Winter particularly in the North and West. Update: 7th November, 2008 [2105 UTC] Seasonal Update: December / Christmas OutlookAre you dreaming of a White Christmas ?
Analysis of the warm temperature anomaly in the Mid-Atlantic to the West of the United Kingdom was undertaken. The macro-physical behaviour of this Ocean anomaly has been compared and contrasted to the UK climatology archive, by a weighted pattern match-up. This analysis is suggestive of a 65% probability of a BELOW AVERAGE December, with a strong tendency towards Arctic maritime airstream near the middle part of December. The Summer / Autumn follows the general trend of 1981, when an Arctic flow resulted in well below average temperatures during December. In 85% of cases the North-Westerly or Westerly domination resulting from the mid-Atlantic pattern persisted into late December for close significant comparison years, when the feature was prevalent during November. In general the warm anomaly propagated Westwards allowing Arctic Maritime air-flow to become a key feature. |
