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*The above temperatures represent a
climatic model for the UK... Note: (1)-The model layed out above represents an estimate of the equilibrium maximum and minimum temperatures based on the current rate of greenhouse emissions (2)-The thermal inertia of the ocean is large due a its large well mixed layer, typically represented by a depth of 30m, and has therefore a delayed effect on climate change. Delays in the establishment of the equilibrium temperature are in the order of several decades to a century. (3)-Variations in the weather conditions vary on
both short term and longer term time scales, causing a large fluctuation from the 'mean values' represented by this model. This is caused by a 30 year averaging process, smoothing out any temperaure anomalies or trends which may occur over a year or several years. For example the warm winter of the 90's due to a tendency to postive NAO. (4)- Error in these results are very large, with only one fundamental equation based on a first order approximation of a Fourier series (+/-1.5K). They especially underestimate the Autumn and Spring temperatures, when the rate of cooling/heating respectively is at its greatest. This equation is based on a climatology from a central england region (Nottingham data). Please note that these averages do not change with the years, they are fixed at the equilibrium level. The date shown is a realistic year for the future temperature, based on the TAR of the IPCC.
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